Predict Responsibly - The Standard for Responsible Prediction Markets

A public educational standard for users. A clear expectation for platforms.

Prediction markets are becoming a meaningful part of how people interpret information, express beliefs, and manage uncertainty. As participation grows, so does the responsibility to ensure that these markets remain understandable, fair, and resilient.

For users

This standard exists to provide clarity on how markets work, where risks come from, and how decisions can go wrong when structure and discipline are missing. Responsible participation is not about predicting better. It is about understanding what you are participating in.

For platforms

This standard reflects a simple reality: informed users build stronger markets. Education, transparency, and integrity are not constraints on growth. They are prerequisites for trust, long-term engagement, and regulatory resilience.

As this category matures, users should be able to expect clear rules, visible risks, and accessible educational resources - and platforms that support responsible participation will define the future of prediction markets.

Chapter 1

Basics & Mechanics

What prediction markets are, and what they are not. How different platform models work, how prices form, and why price movement is not the same as truth or certainty.

Chapter 2

Reading the Market

How to read spreads, order books, and volume with context. Identifying liquidity conditions, execution risk, and early warning signs that responsible platforms should surface clearly.

Chapter 3

Trading Costs

Understanding fees, spreads, and slippage in context. How trading costs compound over time and why transparent cost disclosure matters.

Chapter 4

Rules & Settlement

How market rules, settlement sources, and expiration criteria shape outcomes. Learning to spot ambiguity, edge cases, and dispute risk before it becomes a problem.

Chapter 5

Sound Decisions

Separating information from noise. Recognizing cognitive bias, resisting FOMO-driven behavior, and building discipline through structured decision tracking.

Chapter 6

Integrity & Conduct

Why market integrity protects everyone. Understanding prohibited conduct, manipulation risk, and why both users and platforms share responsibility for healthy markets.

Chapter 7

Risk Management

Practical approaches to budgeting, position sizing, correlation, and exit planning. Responsible participation starts with knowing your limits before markets test them.

Chapter 8

Responsible Habits

Recognizing early warning signs of loss of control. The role of limits, breaks, and self-exclusion, and why platforms should make these tools visible and effective.

Chapter 9

Real-World Scenarios

How responsible principles apply in practice: from fast-moving sports markets, to political settlement risk, to cost and liquidity tradeoffs in economic contracts.

What It Means for Platforms

Core principles that define responsible participation and responsible platform operation.

Integrity First

Markets should operate without manipulation, hidden incentives, or opaque mechanics. Integrity protects users and preserves market credibility as the category scales.

Clear Disclosures

Fees, spreads, risks, and settlement rules should be visible, understandable, and consistent. Informed users make better decisions and reduce long-term friction for platforms.

User Protection

Platforms should actively reduce the risk of harm by preventing predatory design, supporting limits and safeguards, and intervening when participation becomes unhealthy.

Data Privacy

User data should be collected deliberately, protected rigorously, and used only where it adds real value. Trust depends on restraint, not maximal data extraction.

Compliance Ready

Responsible platforms design for regulatory evolution, not retrofitting. Clear standards and documented practices make adaptation faster and less disruptive.

As prediction markets grow, these principles will increasingly define what users expect and what regulators examine. Platforms that align early will build deeper trust, reduce long-term risk, and help shape the future of the category.

Why This Matters

Trust is not a marketing line. It is the foundation of sustainable growth.

Retention

Stronger long-term participation

Clear rules, transparent costs, and healthy safeguards reduce churn and support consistent usage over time.

Resilience

Fewer disputes and surprises

Better disclosures and settlement clarity reduce user frustration, support burden, and reputational risk.

Adoption

A category built to scale

Trust accelerates mainstream acceptance and makes institutional participation more likely as the category matures.

The Practical Approach

We translate responsible participation into three practical pillars that users can understand and platforms can implement.

Education

Clear, accessible learning on market mechanics, risk, costs, and settlement. Better-informed users make better decisions and strengthen market quality over time.

Standards

Shared expectations for transparency, disclosures, integrity, and user safeguards. Not a single rulebook for every venue, but a clear baseline users can rely on.

Implementation

Practical guidance for building responsibility into product and operations: clearer UI disclosures, safer defaults, better tooling, and measurable integrity practices.

Who It’s For

Market participants

Learn how prediction markets work, understand risk, and participate with clarity and discipline.

Serious traders

Build healthier decision habits, understand costs and settlement risk, and avoid avoidable mistakes.

Platform operators

Adopt clearer disclosures, safer defaults, and integrity practices that strengthen trust and reduce disputes.

Compliance teams

Operationalize responsibility with documented standards, repeatable processes, and measurable safeguards.

Regulators & stakeholders

Use a clear reference point for transparency, user protection, and integrity in a fast-growing category.