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What Are Prediction Markets?

A prediction market is a trading platform where you can buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events. Instead of trading stocks in a company, you trade shares in real world outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the crowd estimated probability of that event happening.

Market Driven Prices

Prices move dynamically based on supply and demand. If more people believe an event will happen, the price of the YES contract goes up.

Binary Outcomes

Most contracts resolve to either YES or NO. If you hold the correct contract when the market closes, it settles at full value. The incorrect contract goes to zero.

Early Exits

You do not have to wait for the event to finish. You can sell your positions early to lock in profits or minimize losses if the market conditions change.

Academy

Free video lessons on prediction market fundamentals, risk management, and responsible participation.

What Prices Mean and Don't Mean

What Prices Mean and Don't Mean

Prediction market prices are signals only if understood: not promises or forecasts, just a snapshot of traders’ willingness to trade now.
Red Flags Wide Spreads and Thin Markets

Red Flags Wide Spreads and Thin Markets

Some markets trade smoothly; others look active but are hard to trade responsibly. Wide spreads and thin depth raise execution risk.
Spread and Slippage

Spread and Slippage

Many costs are invisible. Spread and slippage can materially change outcomes. Learn what they mean, why they happen, and how to account for them.
Settlement Source and Expiration

Settlement Source and Expiration

Every market needs a clear settlement source and timing. Check close time, expiration, and how outcomes are confirmed before trading.
Biases Confirmation Bias and FOMO

Biases Confirmation Bias and FOMO

Understand how emotions destroy portfolios. Learn to identify confirmation bias and the fear of missing out before you trade on hype.
Prohibited Conduct Insider Info and Manipulation

Prohibited Conduct Insider Info and Manipulation

Protect your account and the ecosystem. We clearly define illegal market manipulation, insider trading rules, and severe consequences.
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Frequently Asked Questions

How is a prediction market different from sports betting?

In traditional betting, you play directly against the house. In a prediction market, you trade directly against other users. The platform only facilitates the trade and takes a small fee. You also have the flexibility to buy and sell your contracts freely before the event concludes.

What does the price of a contract mean?

The price represents the crowd estimated probability of an event occurring. A contract priced at 60 cents implies the market believes there is a 60 percent chance of that specific outcome happening.

Can I lose more money than I deposit?

No. Your maximum loss is strictly limited to the exact amount you paid for the contracts. There are no margin calls or hidden debts in standard binary prediction markets.

How do I know the outcome is resolved fairly?

Reputable platforms use strict settlement rules and transparent data sources. You must always read the specific market rules before trading to understand exactly how the final outcome will be verified.

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