Settlement Source and Expiration

Every prediction market needs a clear way to determine the outcome. That is the role of the settlement source. Just as important is timing. Markets have an expiration or close time, and they resolve after the outcome is confirmed using the source defined in the rules.

This section explains how to interpret the settlement source and the key timing terms you should check before trading.

What a Settlement Source Is

A settlement source is the specific reference the platform uses to decide whether the market resolves to Yes or No, or which outcome is correct.

Sources can include:

• official government agencies and election authorities
• major statistical releases and economic data publishers
• sports leagues and official box scores
• court dockets, regulatory filings, or official announcements
• a named media outlet or a defined public record

The rules may specify a single source, a hierarchy of sources, or a fallback process if the primary source is unavailable.

Why the Source Matters

The settlement source defines what counts as reality for the purpose of payout. Two sources can report the same event differently, report it at different times, or revise it after initial publication.

If the rules state that settlement is based on a specific source, then:

• other sources do not control the outcome
• “common knowledge” does not control the outcome
• your personal interpretation does not control the outcome

This is why you should treat the source as part of the contract. If you disagree with the choice of source or do not trust its timing or clarity, that is a reason not to trade the market.

Expiration, Close Time, and Resolution Timing

Platforms use different terms, but three timing concepts matter.

Expiration or close time

This is when trading stops. After this point, you cannot enter or exit normally, even if the real world event is still unfolding.

Resolution timing

This is when the platform formally determines the outcome based on the rules and source. Resolution can happen quickly, or it can take time if verification is required.

Settlement

This is when payouts are applied to positions. On many platforms, resolution and settlement happen close together, but they are not always identical concepts.

Always confirm whether a market’s close time is earlier than the event you care about. A market can stop trading before the final outcome is confirmed, which matters if you planned to manage risk by exiting late.

What Happens If the Source Is Delayed or Updated

Delays and updates are common in real world reporting.

Examples include:

• elections that take days to certify
• economic data that is revised after an initial release
• sports results that change due to official corrections
• legal or regulatory outcomes that unfold in stages

The key question is not what you believe happened, but what the rules say counts as the deciding publication or confirmation.

Look for language like:

• “official results” versus “projected results”
• “certified” versus “reported”
• “initial release” versus “final revision”
• “as of” a specific timestamp

If the rules do not specify how to handle revisions or delays, that uncertainty becomes part of the risk.

A Quick Example of Source Risk

Consider a market that depends on an economic indicator release. The initial number is published on the release date, but revisions come later. If the rules say settlement is based on the initial release, then later revisions do not change the outcome, even if they become the “true” final number.

A similar issue appears in politics. A race may be widely called by media outlets, but if the market rules require certification by a specific authority, the market may not resolve until that certification occurs.

This is not a platform opinion. It is simply how rule based settlement works.

The responsible habit is to identify the settlement source and timing before you trade. If you cannot clearly answer “who decides” and “when it is decided” based on the rules, you are taking settlement risk you may not intend to take.