An initiative of responsiblo
Predict responsibly .
Industry self-regulation & education

One public standard for prediction markets.

Clarity, discipline, integrity. Built for users, expected by platforms. Terminals, data providers and media sign one Manifest: trader protection by design, radical transparency, education built into the market.

Join the initiative → Read the Manifest
Market data and probability charts across several trading screens
The act
You sign a public document, not a membership form
The proof
Your company is listed in the open register
The review
A decision by email within 24 hours
The cost
No fee, no tiers, no renewal
01 · Members

Who has signed the standard

Join the initiative → Browse all members
Deja MarketDeja MarketPrediction Market Fors MarketFors MarketInfrastructure HashFoxLabsHashFoxLabsEducation Match HypeMatch Hype PlayNodePlayNodeData Provider PMF FinancePMF FinanceTerminal PolyCopyPolyCopyPrediction Market Polymarket AfricaPolymarket AfricaEducation
PolyTerminal.onlinePolyTerminal.onlineTerminal PredictEventsPredictEventsEvents PredictionJobsPredictionJobsMedia PREDIX MARKETPREDIX MARKETPrediction Market responsibloresponsiblo RumoRumoPrediction Market SINNERS EsportsSINNERS EsportsEsports terminal.pmterminal.pm Deja MarketDeja MarketPrediction Market Fors MarketFors MarketInfrastructure

How the register stays calm. Signatories upload whatever artwork they have: white-on-transparent, baked-in dark backgrounds, square icons, wide wordmarks. On upload each logo is stripped of its own background, re-lit onto one shared paper plate with its hue and saturation intact, and scaled to equal optical area, so brand colour survives without a two-tone patchwork. Missing artwork falls back to a set wordmark, never an empty box.

02 · The Manifest

Six directives. One document. Publicly signed.

Roughly 1,500 words on why the initiative exists, what signatories commit to, and where this industry has to be better than the law currently requires it to be.

A market that cannot explain itself to its own users is not a market. It is a machine for extracting money.
Read the full Manifest →
  1. 01 Integrity first Resolution rules published before a market opens, never after money is on the line.
  2. 02 Radical transparency Fees, spreads, settlement sources and conflicts stated in plain language.
  3. 03 User protection by design Limits, cool-offs and self-exclusion built into the product, not buried in support.
  4. 04 Education before frictionless growth A first-time trader learns what a price means before they learn how to deposit faster.
  5. 05 Regulatory resilience Standards that hold up in the jurisdiction which regulates next, not only the one that hasn't yet.
  6. 06 Sustainable participation Revenue from many informed traders over years, not a few ruined ones over months.
03 · Mechanics

What a prediction market actually is

A venue where you buy and sell contracts on real-world outcomes. The price reflects the crowd's estimated probability, not a sportsbook's edge. Users trade against each other; the platform facilitates and takes a fee.

01 · Pricing

Market-driven prices

Prices move with supply and demand. More belief in an outcome, higher YES price: a probability, not a promise.

02 · Resolution

Binary outcomes

Most contracts settle YES at 100¢ or NO at 0¢. One side pays in full, the other goes to zero, which is why the settlement source matters.

03 · Liquidity

Early exits

Positions can be sold before resolution to lock in a result or cut a loss, if the book is deep enough to let you out.

04 · Signing

Three steps, one review, a public record

Step 01

Register the company

Name, category, logo, what you operate, and a contact. Nine fields, no sales call.

Step 02

Review within 24 hours

We check the company is real, operating, and not in conflict with the Manifest. Decisions come by email.

Step 03

Published as a signatory

Your profile joins the register. You place the Official Signatory mark and a link in your footer.

Start signing → No fee. No membership tiers. One standard.
05 · Blog

Industry news, regulation, explainers

All posts →
The Exclusion List Is Now Evidence of What a Venue Can Do Education 12 Oct 2026 12 min

The Exclusion List Is Now Evidence of What a Venue Can Do

A federal court in Utah decided the impossibility question by reading an appendix the exchange had already published. Restricted participant lists were written as product disclosures, and they are now being read as statements of what a venue is able to build. We went through the filings, both rulebooks and the generated source agency file to see what that document actually promises, and how long it takes to change one while money is at risk.
Education 11 Oct 2026 11 min

The Provision Both Sides Avoided Is Now the Agency's Argument

 Regulation 10 Oct 2026 12 min

The Exchange Won the Preemption Point and Lost on the Product

 Regulation 9 Oct 2026 12 min

Baltimore Sued on Its Own Ordinance While the State Waited

 Education 8 Oct 2026 11 min

The Measurement This Case Needs Was Written Down in 2023
06 · Academy

Learn the mechanics before you trade them

Nine lessons · free, no signup Enter the Academy
What Prices Mean and Don't Mean Lesson 01 Prediction market prices are signals only if understood: not promises or forecasts, just a snapshot of traders’ willingness to trade now. Watch lesson → Red Flags Wide Spreads and Thin Markets Lesson 02 Some markets trade smoothly; others look active but are hard to trade responsibly. Wide spreads and thin depth raise execution risk. Watch lesson → Spread and Slippage Lesson 03 Many costs are invisible. Spread and slippage can materially change outcomes. Learn what they mean, why they happen, and how to account for them. Watch lesson →
07 · Spotlight Member Spotlight
SINNERS Esports SINNERS × Polymarket

SINNERS Esports brings responsible prediction markets to esports

SINNERS Esports is helping introduce competitive gaming audiences to prediction markets through clearer education, stronger risk awareness, and a culture of informed participation. Through its partnership with Polymarket and its role as a Predict Responsibly signatory, SINNERS shows how esports organizations can engage fans while promoting integrity, transparency, and healthier decision-making.
  • Clearer education for esports fans
  • Better understanding of risk and probability
  • A stronger culture of integrity and informed participation
Meet SINNERS Explore the Academy
SINNERS Esports players at the BC Game Masters tournament
08 · Questions

Answered plainly

Anything missing that would help the standard, we publish. Ask and it gets answered here.

Ask a question
How is a prediction market different from sports betting?

In betting you play against the house. In a prediction market you trade against other users: the platform facilitates the trade and takes a fee. You can also buy and sell your contracts freely before the event concludes.

What does the price of a contract mean?

The price is the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A contract at 60¢ implies the market believes there is roughly a 60 percent chance of it happening.

Can I lose more than I deposit?

No. In standard binary prediction markets your maximum loss is the amount you paid for the contracts. No margin calls, no hidden debt.

How do I know the outcome is resolved fairly?

Reputable venues publish strict settlement rules and transparent data sources. Always read the market rules before trading to see exactly how the outcome will be verified.

The register is public

Sign the standard your users already assume you follow.

Nine fields, a logo, and a 24-hour review. Signing is free and public, as is withdrawing, which is the point of a standard worth signing.

Join the initiative → Why platforms sign