Clarity, discipline, integrity. Built for users, expected by platforms. Terminals, data providers and media sign one Manifest: trader protection by design, radical transparency, education built into the market.
How the register stays calm. Signatories upload whatever artwork they have: white-on-transparent, baked-in dark backgrounds, square icons, wide wordmarks. On upload each logo is stripped of its own background, re-lit onto one shared paper plate with its hue and saturation intact, and scaled to equal optical area, so brand colour survives without a two-tone patchwork. Missing artwork falls back to a set wordmark, never an empty box.
Roughly 1,500 words on why the initiative exists, what signatories commit to, and where this industry has to be better than the law currently requires it to be.
A market that cannot explain itself to its own users is not a market. It is a machine for extracting money.
A venue where you buy and sell contracts on real-world outcomes. The price reflects the crowd's estimated probability, not a sportsbook's edge. Users trade against each other; the platform facilitates and takes a fee.
Prices move with supply and demand. More belief in an outcome, higher YES price: a probability, not a promise.
Most contracts settle YES at 100¢ or NO at 0¢. One side pays in full, the other goes to zero, which is why the settlement source matters.
Positions can be sold before resolution to lock in a result or cut a loss, if the book is deep enough to let you out.
Name, category, logo, what you operate, and a contact. Nine fields, no sales call.
We check the company is real, operating, and not in conflict with the Manifest. Decisions come by email.
Your profile joins the register. You place the Official Signatory mark and a link in your footer.
Lesson 01
Prediction market prices are signals only if understood: not promises or forecasts, just a snapshot of traders’ willingness to trade now.
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Lesson 02
Some markets trade smoothly; others look active but are hard to trade responsibly. Wide spreads and thin depth raise execution risk.
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Lesson 03
Many costs are invisible. Spread and slippage can materially change outcomes. Learn what they mean, why they happen, and how to account for them.
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SINNERS
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Anything missing that would help the standard, we publish. Ask and it gets answered here.
In betting you play against the house. In a prediction market you trade against other users: the platform facilitates the trade and takes a fee. You can also buy and sell your contracts freely before the event concludes.
The price is the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A contract at 60¢ implies the market believes there is roughly a 60 percent chance of it happening.
No. In standard binary prediction markets your maximum loss is the amount you paid for the contracts. No margin calls, no hidden debt.
Reputable venues publish strict settlement rules and transparent data sources. Always read the market rules before trading to see exactly how the outcome will be verified.
Nine fields, a logo, and a 24-hour review. Signing is free and public, as is withdrawing, which is the point of a standard worth signing.
