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The public standard for safe prediction markets.

Learn how prices form, read order books, and protect your capital.

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SINNERS Esports brings responsible prediction markets to esports

SINNERS Esports is helping introduce competitive gaming audiences to prediction markets through clearer education, stronger risk awareness, and a culture of informed participation. Through its partnership with Polymarket and its role as a Predict Responsibly signatory, SINNERS shows how esports organizations can engage fans while promoting integrity, transparency, and healthier decision-making.

Clearer education for esports fans
Better understanding of risk and probability
A stronger culture of integrity and informed participation

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SINNERS

What are prediction markets?

A trading platform where you buy and sell contracts based on real-world outcomes. The price reflects the crowd's estimated probability — not a sportsbook's edge.

01 · Pricing

Market-driven prices

Prices move dynamically with supply and demand. More belief → higher YES price.

02 · Resolution

Binary outcomes

YES 100¢

NO 0¢

Most contracts resolve YES or NO. The correct contract settles at full value; the other goes to zero.

03 · Liquidity

Early exits

Sell positions early to lock in profits or limit losses. You don't have to wait for resolution.

Academy

Free lessons on the fundamentals

Short video lessons on prediction-market mechanics, risk management, and responsible participation — built for traders at any level.

What Prices Mean and Don't Mean

Prediction market prices are signals only if understood: not promises or forecasts, just a snapshot of traders’ willingness to trade now.

Red Flags Wide Spreads and Thin Markets

Some markets trade smoothly; others look active but are hard to trade responsibly. Wide spreads and thin depth raise execution risk.

Spread and Slippage

Many costs are invisible. Spread and slippage can materially change outcomes. Learn what they mean, why they happen, and how to account for them.

Settlement Source and Expiration

Every market needs a clear settlement source and timing. Check close time, expiration, and how outcomes are confirmed before trading.

Biases Confirmation Bias and FOMO

Understand how emotions destroy portfolios. Learn to identify confirmation bias and the fear of missing out before you trade on hype.

Prohibited Conduct Insider Info and Manipulation

Protect your account and the ecosystem. We clearly define illegal market manipulation, insider trading rules, and severe consequences.

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From the blog

Insights on responsible prediction markets, regulation, and industry best practices.

Apr 2, 2026

The Trust Layer: What a Responsible Prediction Market Must Prove Before It Scales

Prediction markets have already built the speed layer: liquidity bursts, headlines, fast-moving contracts, and viral attention. What they still have to prove is the trust layer. A market that wants to scale responsibly must show not only that people want to trade it, but that the venue is governable, the contracts are defensible, the rules are visible, and ordinary users are not being asked to underprice hidden structural risk.

Apr 1, 2026

Prediction Markets Legal Tracker: March 2026

March 2026 may prove to be the month when prediction markets stopped looking like a fast-growing niche and started looking like a full legal category under pressure from every direction at once. Federal rulemaking, staff advisories, state lawsuits, criminal charges, and new legislative proposals are now converging on the same question: what kind of prediction market will be allowed to survive.

Mar 31, 2026

Margin and Leverage: The Next Big Fault Line in Prediction Markets

Prediction markets today are generally fully collateralized, which naturally limits some of the worst retail risks. That may not remain true forever. Once margin and leverage enter the category, the entire risk profile changes, and so does the difference between a responsible market and a dangerous one.

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FAQ

Common questions, answered plainly.

Don't see what you're looking for? Reach out — we publish answers to anything that helps the standard.

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How is a prediction market different from sports betting? +

In traditional betting, you play directly against the house. In a prediction market, you trade directly against other users. The platform only facilitates the trade and takes a small fee. You also have the flexibility to buy and sell your contracts freely before the event concludes.

What does the price of a contract mean? +

The price represents the crowd estimated probability of an event occurring. A contract priced at 60 cents implies the market believes there is a 60 percent chance of that specific outcome happening.

Can I lose more money than I deposit? +

No. Your maximum loss is strictly limited to the exact amount you paid for the contracts. There are no margin calls or hidden debts in standard binary prediction markets.

How do I know the outcome is resolved fairly? +

Reputable platforms use strict settlement rules and transparent data sources. You must always read the specific market rules before trading to understand exactly how the final outcome will be verified.

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Responsible trading is the foundation of sustainable growth.