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Three Million Users Arrived and Nobody Counts Who Stayed Education 16 Sep 2026 Three Million Users Arrived and Nobody Counts Who Stayed Kalshi confirmed three million new accounts during the World Cup. Two months later nobody outside the company can say how many of them still trade, because volume is reported and people are not. The one public study of an event cohort is on chain, covers a single venue and found most traders gone inside two months. Read more → The Same Name Covers Two Different Rulebooks Platform Reviews 15 Sep 2026 The Same Name Covers Two Different Rulebooks One brand, two legal entities, two rulebooks and a single volume figure that covers both. A reader who sees the combined number cannot tell which regime holds their money, publishes their market data or decides who was right. The split is documented. It is just not documented where the trade happens. Read more → Everything Brussels Did Not Ask About Goes In One Box Education 14 Sep 2026 Everything Brussels Did Not Ask About Goes In One Box The MiCA review closes on 30 September 2026 and its five prediction market questions are narrow. Question 86 is the only place in the document for everything else, and it is the first time the category has appeared in an EU file at all. Read more → Four Authorities Have Four Names for the Same Contract Education 13 Sep 2026 Four Authorities Have Four Names for the Same Contract The word bet appears exactly once in the Commission's MiCA review consultation, in the sentence that describes prediction markets. Brussels, Washington, Paris and London each use a different name for the same instrument, and not one of them classifies it by the name. All four sort on construction: what the contract pays, what it points at, who is on the other side. That is the part an operator can write, and the file closes on 30 September 2026. Read more → Every Leg Must Win and Nobody Publishes How Often That Happens Education 12 Sep 2026 Every Leg Must Win and Nobody Publishes How Often That Happens Kalshi opened combined contracts to every user on 15 December 2025. By August 2026 combinations were half of the tracked United States sports contract volume. Across four CFTC rulemaking documents published in the same year, running to roughly 195,800 words, the word parlay does not appear once. The product that carries the most money is the one the rulebook never names. Read more → Only Nine Companies Hold the Licence a Prediction Market Needs Platform Reviews 11 Sep 2026 Only Nine Companies Hold the Licence a Prediction Market Needs In February 2026 the Gambling Commission said a prediction market operating in Great Britain would look like a betting intermediary, a category that has existed since betting exchanges launched in 2000. That answer pointed at an open route rather than a closed door. We went to the public register on 11 September 2026 to see who is actually on it. Nine companies hold an active remote betting intermediary licence, eight more have let one go since 2024, and the best known prediction market brand in Britain reaches its users on a licence that belongs to somebody else. Read more → The Licence Does Not Disappear When the Retail Client Does Education 10 Sep 2026 The Licence Does Not Disappear When the Retail Client Does Every operator who reads the European binary options ban reaches the same idea within an afternoon: keep the product and drop the retail user. It clears one obstacle and leaves a second one standing, because the ban is bounded by client category and the licensing duty is not. ESMA said so on 3 July 2026 under a heading of its own, and the rest of the European map does not soften the answer. Read more → The Commission Left the Requirements Box Empty Until 30 September Regulation 9 Sep 2026 The Commission Left the Requirements Box Empty Until 30 September The European Commission has a section on prediction markets in its MiCA review, and the question that matters in it has no answer options at all. It asks what substantive requirements should apply to firms running these venues. The box is empty, the deadline is 30 September 2026, and whatever the industry does not write there will be written by someone else. Read more → Which Rulebook Applies When an Event Contract Is a Token? Regulation 8 Sep 2026 Which Rulebook Applies When an Event Contract Is a Token? ESMA spent one footnote of its 3 July 2026 statement on tokenised event contracts, and that sentence moves a whole product class into MiCA. Two days earlier the MiCA transitional period closed. Until 30 September 2026 the European Commission is asking whether this is the right rulebook at all, and prediction market operators are the people who can answer. Read more → The Clearing House Conflict Arrives With the First Margin Call Education 7 Sep 2026 The Clearing House Conflict Arrives With the First Margin Call Both large US prediction market venues own the clearing house that settles their trades, and in both cases a company under the same ownership clears there as a member. Section IV of the CFTC proposal published on 6 August 2026 is the first federal document to name that structure. Comments close on 5 October 2026. Read more → The First Screen a Trader Sees Belongs to Someone Else Platform Reviews 6 Sep 2026 The First Screen a Trader Sees Belongs to Someone Else The CFTC letter of 7 August 2026 is remembered for banning bookmaker odds. Its closing request asks venues to review the information displayed or used by their partners and affiliates, which is a sentence about a layer rather than a format. Most first contact with this category happens on a screen the exchange does not own, and the rules for that screen already exist in a rulebook almost nobody cites. Read more → Three Letters Asked the CFTC to Act on Someone Else Industry News 5 Sep 2026 Three Letters Asked the CFTC to Act on Someone Else In 2026 seven House members, the largest registered exchange and two senators all wrote to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission about prediction markets. The three letters agree on almost nothing, and they share one shape: each asks the regulator to constrain conduct the writer does not control. None of them commits the writer to anything. Read more →
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