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Five Member States Gave ESMA Something Other Than Yes Regulation 31 Oct 2026 Five Member States Gave ESMA Something Other Than Yes Whether a yes or no contract is a financial instrument decides which European rulebook a venue lives under, and that question is answered one Member State at a time. ESMA said so in its own executive summary, then published the table showing what the answers are. As of 17 July 2026 five of the twenty seven national columns do not read yes, two Member States have no designated authority, and Denmark wrote down that another regulator's classification is input rather than an answer. Read more → Who Counts as an Insider When the Secret Is the Outcome? Education 30 Oct 2026 Who Counts as an Insider When the Secret Is the Outcome? European insider trading law assumes the price moving secret belongs to a company that is obliged to publish it. In a prediction market it belongs to whoever already knows how the event turns out, and that person has no connection to the venue, the contract or any issuer. Article 87 of MiCA has to reach them through a single clause, and nobody has yet said whether it does. Read more → The Perpetuals Half of Section 4.4 Answered With a Rulebook Education 29 Oct 2026 The Perpetuals Half of Section 4.4 Answered With a Rulebook The European Commission put prediction markets and perpetual futures in one section of its MiCA review and asked five questions across them. The window closed on 30 September 2026. Read side by side, the filings respondents published themselves show the two halves came back unequal: perpetuals arrived with an instrument definition, a disclosure list and a 2018 decision to calibrate against, while our half drew one paragraph and a cross reference. Read more → The Rules Change by Letter and You Are Required to Notice Education 28 Oct 2026 The Rules Change by Letter and You Are Required to Notice A new conduct rule took effect on KalshiEX on 27 October 2026 through a letter filed ten business days earlier. The day after, the consolidated rulebook posted in Kalshi's public document store still did not contain it. Self-certification under Commission Regulation 40.6 is legal, fast and useful, and it was built as a conversation between an exchange and its regulator. Here is where that conversation stops, and what a venue can publish tomorrow to close the distance. Read more → The Direct Clearing Model Stops Where Margined Contracts Begin Platform Reviews 27 Oct 2026 The Direct Clearing Model Stops Where Margined Contracts Begin A Commission order issued on 15 April 2026 lets Kalshi Klear clear margined contracts, and one clause in it decides who may hold one: a futures commission merchant, or an eligible contract participant clearing in its own name. For a person that status starts at ten million dollars. So the direct relationship the category advertises as a feature is the one path a retail account cannot take once margin arrives, and nothing on the trading surface says so. Read more → A Position Can Be Fully Funded and Still Not Be Fully Collateralized Education 26 Oct 2026 A Position Can Be Fully Funded and Still Not Be Fully Collateralized Kalshi Klear was registered in August 2024 to clear fully collateralized swaps only, and the maximum loss on a prepaid position was therefore fixed at the moment the order was placed. Rulebook version 1.4 added a margin chapter and a default chapter in April 2026, and a submission filed on 22 September 2026 would extend margined treatment to event contracts. This is what the rules actually change for the person holding the position, including the one sentence that makes a fully funded contract something other than a fully collateralized one. Read more → A Video That Mentions Profit Waits Ten Days for a Reviewer Education 25 Oct 2026 A Video That Mentions Profit Waits Ten Days for a Reviewer A futures broker who wants to post a video about how much money somebody made has to hand it to a reviewer outside the firm ten days before anyone sees it. The requirement has existed since 1985 and reached internet video in 2010. It does not reach a prediction market exchange or anyone it pays to promote it, and the reason is not that the mechanism is hard to build. It is written down, it is auditable, and as of 25 October 2026 nobody has borrowed it. Read more → The Same App Routes Your Trade to Four Different Rulebooks Platform Reviews 24 Oct 2026 The Same App Routes Your Trade to Four Different Rulebooks A broker app shows one order ticket, one price and one pair of YES and NO buttons. Behind it sit four separately registered exchanges, each with its own rulebook, its own emergency powers and its own answer to the question of who gets told when a position is unwound. On 24 October 2026 the only thing on the public market pages that distinguishes them is the hostname of a linked PDF. Here is what differs, why it reaches the holder of the position, and what belongs on the card before the first trade. Read more → The Referral Fee Question Was Settled in 1983 and Then Reopened Regulation 23 Oct 2026 The Referral Fee Question Was Settled in 1983 and Then Reopened A partner paid for the accounts it sends to a prediction market is either a marketing channel or an intermediary, and the venue does not get to pick. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission answered the compensation question in 1983, its staff drew a six part line around it in 2004, and on 17 September 2026 that line moved far enough to name event contracts. What changed is not whether a paid partner may solicit. What changed is what has to be on file if it does. Read more → A Rule Covers the Staged Trade but Not the Undisclosed Payment Education 22 Oct 2026 A Rule Covers the Staged Trade but Not the Undisclosed Payment In June 2026 the Wall Street Journal reported that a prediction market platform had paid social media creators to film trades they never placed, on replica websites built for the camera. Read as a compliance question rather than as a scandal, the conduct described splits in two, and the halves land on opposite sides of a line the Federal Trade Commission drew on purpose in 2024. Showing a trade nobody made breaks a rule that carries a dollar figure. Not saying the creator was paid does not break that rule at all. Read more → Each of the Six Standards Already Exists in Somebody Else's Rulebook Education 21 Oct 2026 Each of the Six Standards Already Exists in Somebody Else's Rulebook On 25 June 2026 two United States senators asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission which consumer protection standards it requires of prediction market operators, and listed six: advertising, age verification, addiction warnings, responsible gaming tools, affiliate marketing and influencer disclosures. Read as a column header rather than as politics, that sentence is the most useful self assessment the category has been handed. Every one of the six already has a written standard. None of them was written for an event contract exchange. Read more → What Separates an Event Contract From the Wager Next Door? Regulation 20 Oct 2026 What Separates an Event Contract From the Wager Next Door? On 19 October 2026 the CFTC published two documents at once. One takes licensed casino gambling out of the swap definition and is already in force. The other would write event contracts into it and is only a proposal. The published preamble names five ways the two products differ, and every one of them is a statement about how a venue is run rather than about what happens to the person trading on it. Read more →
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