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Who Counts as an Insider When the Secret Is the Outcome? Education 30 Oct 2026 Who Counts as an Insider When the Secret Is the Outcome? European insider trading law assumes the price moving secret belongs to a company that is obliged to publish it. In a prediction market it belongs to whoever already knows how the event turns out, and that person has no connection to the venue, the contract or any issuer. Article 87 of MiCA has to reach them through a single clause, and nobody has yet said whether it does. Read more → The Perpetuals Half of Section 4.4 Answered With a Rulebook Education 29 Oct 2026 The Perpetuals Half of Section 4.4 Answered With a Rulebook The European Commission put prediction markets and perpetual futures in one section of its MiCA review and asked five questions across them. The window closed on 30 September 2026. Read side by side, the filings respondents published themselves show the two halves came back unequal: perpetuals arrived with an instrument definition, a disclosure list and a 2018 decision to calibrate against, while our half drew one paragraph and a cross reference. Read more → The Rules Change by Letter and You Are Required to Notice Education 28 Oct 2026 The Rules Change by Letter and You Are Required to Notice A new conduct rule took effect on KalshiEX on 27 October 2026 through a letter filed ten business days earlier. The day after, the consolidated rulebook posted in Kalshi's public document store still did not contain it. Self-certification under Commission Regulation 40.6 is legal, fast and useful, and it was built as a conversation between an exchange and its regulator. Here is where that conversation stops, and what a venue can publish tomorrow to close the distance. Read more → A Position Can Be Fully Funded and Still Not Be Fully Collateralized Education 26 Oct 2026 A Position Can Be Fully Funded and Still Not Be Fully Collateralized Kalshi Klear was registered in August 2024 to clear fully collateralized swaps only, and the maximum loss on a prepaid position was therefore fixed at the moment the order was placed. Rulebook version 1.4 added a margin chapter and a default chapter in April 2026, and a submission filed on 22 September 2026 would extend margined treatment to event contracts. This is what the rules actually change for the person holding the position, including the one sentence that makes a fully funded contract something other than a fully collateralized one. Read more → A Video That Mentions Profit Waits Ten Days for a Reviewer Education 25 Oct 2026 A Video That Mentions Profit Waits Ten Days for a Reviewer A futures broker who wants to post a video about how much money somebody made has to hand it to a reviewer outside the firm ten days before anyone sees it. The requirement has existed since 1985 and reached internet video in 2010. It does not reach a prediction market exchange or anyone it pays to promote it, and the reason is not that the mechanism is hard to build. It is written down, it is auditable, and as of 25 October 2026 nobody has borrowed it. Read more → A Rule Covers the Staged Trade but Not the Undisclosed Payment Education 22 Oct 2026 A Rule Covers the Staged Trade but Not the Undisclosed Payment In June 2026 the Wall Street Journal reported that a prediction market platform had paid social media creators to film trades they never placed, on replica websites built for the camera. Read as a compliance question rather than as a scandal, the conduct described splits in two, and the halves land on opposite sides of a line the Federal Trade Commission drew on purpose in 2024. Showing a trade nobody made breaks a rule that carries a dollar figure. Not saying the creator was paid does not break that rule at all. Read more → Each of the Six Standards Already Exists in Somebody Else's Rulebook Education 21 Oct 2026 Each of the Six Standards Already Exists in Somebody Else's Rulebook On 25 June 2026 two United States senators asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission which consumer protection standards it requires of prediction market operators, and listed six: advertising, age verification, addiction warnings, responsible gaming tools, affiliate marketing and influencer disclosures. Read as a column header rather than as politics, that sentence is the most useful self assessment the category has been handed. Every one of the six already has a written standard. None of them was written for an event contract exchange. Read more → The Geolocation Check Ends and a Chat Window Opens Education 19 Oct 2026 The Geolocation Check Ends and a Chat Window Opens Every venue that blocks a state describes the measure as a technical control, and the one case where a regulator wrote down how such a control failed does not describe a technical failure at all. It describes a conversation. In the CFTC order against Bitfinex the hole in the geoblock was a customer service representative, and five years later no exchange rulebook, state geofencing standard or logging rule says what that representative may answer. Read more → Who Gets Told When an Exchange Uses Its Emergency Power? Education 15 Oct 2026 Who Gets Told When an Exchange Uses Its Emergency Power? Every exchange the CFTC designates must be able to suspend a market, demand extra margin and liquidate open positions. Core Principle 6 requires that power and says nothing about telling the person who holds the position. We read the regulation, its guidance and the emergency rules of four rulebooks on file with the Commission as of 15 October 2026. One promises a notice inside the emergency rule, one files that promise five chapters away, and one gives a maintenance window more warning than a cancelled contract. Read more → What Does the Impartial Access Rule Actually Forbid? Education 13 Oct 2026 What Does the Impartial Access Rule Actually Forbid? Since February 2026 every exchange arguing with a state about sports event contracts has reached for the same ninety words of federal regulation. Six benches have now read the impartial access duty in Commission Regulation 38.151(b) and four of them rejected the argument built on it, each for a different reason. The Commission explained in 2010 what the rule was for, and the explanation is about net worth and fee classes. A venue leaning on this rule is holding a weaker card than it thinks. Read more → The Exclusion List Is Now Evidence of What a Venue Can Do Education 12 Oct 2026 The Exclusion List Is Now Evidence of What a Venue Can Do A federal court in Utah decided the impossibility question by reading an appendix the exchange had already published. Restricted participant lists were written as product disclosures, and they are now being read as statements of what a venue is able to build. We went through the filings, both rulebooks and the generated source agency file to see what that document actually promises, and how long it takes to change one while money is at risk. Read more → The Provision Both Sides Avoided Is Now the Agency's Argument Education 11 Oct 2026 The Provision Both Sides Avoided Is Now the Agency's Argument A concurring judge on the Ninth Circuit found a statutory provision that pointed away from the result, noted that neither party wanted to argue it, and parked the question on a Commission regulation that was already being rewritten. Six weeks later the Commission cited that concurrence in a rulemaking of its own, for the opposite proposition. What the sequence shows is that a legal position has a shelf life set by instruments nobody at the venue controls. Read more →
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