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Education 16 Sep 2026 Three Million Users Arrived and Nobody Counts Who Stayed Kalshi confirmed three million new accounts during the World Cup. Two months later nobody outside the company can say how many of them still trade, because volume is reported and people are not. The one public study of an event cohort is on chain, covers a single venue and found most traders gone inside two months. Read more →

Education 14 Sep 2026 Everything Brussels Did Not Ask About Goes In One Box The MiCA review closes on 30 September 2026 and its five prediction market questions are narrow. Question 86 is the only place in the document for everything else, and it is the first time the category has appeared in an EU file at all. Read more →

Education 13 Sep 2026 Four Authorities Have Four Names for the Same Contract The word bet appears exactly once in the Commission's MiCA review consultation, in the sentence that describes prediction markets. Brussels, Washington, Paris and London each use a different name for the same instrument, and not one of them classifies it by the name. All four sort on construction: what the contract pays, what it points at, who is on the other side. That is the part an operator can write, and the file closes on 30 September 2026. Read more →

Education 12 Sep 2026 Every Leg Must Win and Nobody Publishes How Often That Happens Kalshi opened combined contracts to every user on 15 December 2025. By August 2026 combinations were half of the tracked United States sports contract volume. Across four CFTC rulemaking documents published in the same year, running to roughly 195,800 words, the word parlay does not appear once. The product that carries the most money is the one the rulebook never names. Read more →

Education 10 Sep 2026 The Licence Does Not Disappear When the Retail Client Does Every operator who reads the European binary options ban reaches the same idea within an afternoon: keep the product and drop the retail user. It clears one obstacle and leaves a second one standing, because the ban is bounded by client category and the licensing duty is not. ESMA said so on 3 July 2026 under a heading of its own, and the rest of the European map does not soften the answer. Read more →

Education 7 Sep 2026 The Clearing House Conflict Arrives With the First Margin Call Both large US prediction market venues own the clearing house that settles their trades, and in both cases a company under the same ownership clears there as a member. Section IV of the CFTC proposal published on 6 August 2026 is the first federal document to name that structure. Comments close on 5 October 2026. Read more →

Education 4 Sep 2026 Geoblocking Stops the Next Trade and Leaves the Open One Geofencing answers who may place the next trade. It says nothing about the contracts a blocked user already holds, and in the summer of 2026 that gap produced two orders pointing in opposite directions. A Michigan court told KalshiEX to void and refund executed trades. On 14 July 2026 the Commodity Futures Trading Commission stayed the exchange's emergency rule and ordered the same trades fulfilled. Here is what the sequence shows about the rules a venue should write before it loses a state. Read more →

Education 30 Aug 2026 Forty Questions Went Out and Two Rules Came Back The CFTC asked forty numbered questions about prediction markets in March 2026 and got roughly 3,500 answers. The number travels well and explains almost nothing. What the record actually shows is that a few hundred submissions did the work, seventeen letters reached the footnotes of the rule that followed, and whole sections of the questionnaire have produced no proposal at all. Read more →

Education 26 Aug 2026 The Right to Respond Is Only Worth What You Can File The June 2026 proposal gives a prediction market real procedural rights for the first time: a written determination, a statement of concerns, a response, and a look at the staff recommendation before the Commission votes. Every one of them is a deadline to file something. Read as a schedule rather than as a protection, the proposed rule is a list of documents a venue either has ready or does not. Read more →

Education 25 Aug 2026 Open Interest Fell While Volume Set a Record In July 2026 prediction market volume hit an all time high of $50.59 billion while open interest on the same venues was falling. Both numbers are accurate, and the difference between them is the difference between attention and commitment. Read more →

Education 31 Mar 2026 Margin and Leverage: The Next Big Fault Line in Prediction Markets Prediction markets today are generally fully collateralized, which naturally limits some of the worst retail risks. That may not remain true forever. Once margin and leverage enter the category, the entire risk profile changes, and so does the difference between a responsible market and a dangerous one. Read more →

Education 30 Mar 2026 Numbers That Matter: The 10 Metrics That Actually Describe a Prediction Market Prediction markets love headline numbers: total volume, number of listed contracts, users, and media mentions. But those metrics often say very little about whether a market is actually tradable, fair, resilient, or useful. A serious evaluation starts with the numbers that describe quality, not just activity. Read more →

Insights on responsible prediction markets.