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Education 10 Sep 2026 The Licence Does Not Disappear When the Retail Client Does Every operator who reads the European binary options ban reaches the same idea within an afternoon: keep the product and drop the retail user. It clears one obstacle and leaves a second one standing, because the ban is bounded by client category and the licensing duty is not. ESMA said so on 3 July 2026 under a heading of its own, and the rest of the European map does not soften the answer. Read more →

Education 7 Sep 2026 The Clearing House Conflict Arrives With the First Margin Call Both large US prediction market venues own the clearing house that settles their trades, and in both cases a company under the same ownership clears there as a member. Section IV of the CFTC proposal published on 6 August 2026 is the first federal document to name that structure. Comments close on 5 October 2026. Read more →

Education 4 Sep 2026 Geoblocking Stops the Next Trade and Leaves the Open One Geofencing answers who may place the next trade. It says nothing about the contracts a blocked user already holds, and in the summer of 2026 that gap produced two orders pointing in opposite directions. A Michigan court told KalshiEX to void and refund executed trades. On 14 July 2026 the Commodity Futures Trading Commission stayed the exchange's emergency rule and ordered the same trades fulfilled. Here is what the sequence shows about the rules a venue should write before it loses a state. Read more →

Education 30 Aug 2026 Forty Questions Went Out and Two Rules Came Back The CFTC asked forty numbered questions about prediction markets in March 2026 and got roughly 3,500 answers. The number travels well and explains almost nothing. What the record actually shows is that a few hundred submissions did the work, seventeen letters reached the footnotes of the rule that followed, and whole sections of the questionnaire have produced no proposal at all. Read more →

Education 26 Aug 2026 The Right to Respond Is Only Worth What You Can File The June 2026 proposal gives a prediction market real procedural rights for the first time: a written determination, a statement of concerns, a response, and a look at the staff recommendation before the Commission votes. Every one of them is a deadline to file something. Read as a schedule rather than as a protection, the proposed rule is a list of documents a venue either has ready or does not. Read more →

Education 25 Aug 2026 Open Interest Fell While Volume Set a Record In July 2026 prediction market volume hit an all time high of $50.59 billion while open interest on the same venues was falling. Both numbers are accurate, and the difference between them is the difference between attention and commitment. Read more →

Education 31 Mar 2026 Margin and Leverage: The Next Big Fault Line in Prediction Markets Prediction markets today are generally fully collateralized, which naturally limits some of the worst retail risks. That may not remain true forever. Once margin and leverage enter the category, the entire risk profile changes, and so does the difference between a responsible market and a dangerous one. Read more →

Education 30 Mar 2026 Numbers That Matter: The 10 Metrics That Actually Describe a Prediction Market Prediction markets love headline numbers: total volume, number of listed contracts, users, and media mentions. But those metrics often say very little about whether a market is actually tradable, fair, resilient, or useful. A serious evaluation starts with the numbers that describe quality, not just activity. Read more →

Education 29 Mar 2026 Sports Contracts: The Growth Engine and the Weakest Legal Flank Sports contracts are helping prediction markets scale faster than any other category. They are easy to understand, easy to distribute, and easy to trade. But they are also where the industry looks most vulnerable to gambling comparisons, manipulation concerns, insider-risk, and direct conflict with state regulators. Read more →

Education 28 Mar 2026 Settlement Risk: Being Right Is Not Enough Prediction markets are not won only by forecasting the event correctly. They are also won or lost through contract wording, resolution sources, fallback rules, dispute procedures, and the venue's ability to turn a messy real-world event into a fair and final settlement. If you do not understand the settlement layer, you are not only trading the event. You are trading ambiguity. Read more →

Education 19 Mar 2026 The Multibillion Dollar Illusion: Spread, Slippage and the Hidden Cost of Prediction Markets Prediction markets can post massive headline volume while many individual contracts remain expensive to trade. The real cost is often not the listed fee, but the gap between the price you see, the price you can actually execute, and the price you can later exit. Read more →

Education 18 Mar 2026 The Psychology of the Trade: How FOMO and Crowd Euphoria Destroy Portfolios Prediction markets do not punish emotion because emotion is immoral. They punish it because binary pricing makes late, hype driven entries mathematically fragile. The real danger is not excitement itself, but confusing public attention with genuine edge. Read more →

Insights on responsible prediction markets.