Regulation | Blog | PredictResponsibly.com

Regulation 9 Sep 2026 The Commission Left the Requirements Box Empty Until 30 September The European Commission has a section on prediction markets in its MiCA review, and the question that matters in it has no answer options at all. It asks what substantive requirements should apply to firms running these venues. The box is empty, the deadline is 30 September 2026, and whatever the industry does not write there will be written by someone else. Read more →

Regulation 8 Sep 2026 Which Rulebook Applies When an Event Contract Is a Token? ESMA spent one footnote of its 3 July 2026 statement on tokenised event contracts, and that sentence moves a whole product class into MiCA. Two days earlier the MiCA transitional period closed. Until 30 September 2026 the European Commission is asking whether this is the right rulebook at all, and prediction market operators are the people who can answer. Read more →

Regulation 3 Sep 2026 Congress Preempted State Gaming Law Everywhere the Exchange Is Not The Commodity Exchange Act uses the words preempt and gaming in a single sentence, and that sentence describes venues a designated contract market is not. A Utah court read it that way on 4 August 2026, the Ninth Circuit worked around it on 28 August, and the Third Circuit had already gone the other way in April. On 2 September 2026 New Jersey asked the Supreme Court to settle the question. Here is what the clause actually says, and what a venue can build that does not depend on how the argument ends. Read more →

Regulation 1 Sep 2026 The Category Tabs Became the Boundary of an Injunction A King County judge did not close Kalshi in Washington. He sorted its book, stopping seven subject areas and leaving four trading, and he described the split using the category tabs the platform publishes to its own users. One category on the court's list of the platform ended up in neither half. With a geofencing deadline of 2 September 2026 and a named vendor written into the order, this is what listing classification looks like when someone else does it for you. Read more →

Regulation 31 Aug 2026 The Consumer Protection Rule Exists Only as a Sentence On 20 August 2026 the CFTC gave prediction markets fifty minutes of its first Innovation Advisory Committee meeting, and Chairman Michael S. Selig used the occasion to preview three rulemakings. Two of them are published documents anyone can read and comment on. The third, which would put consumer protection requirements into Parts 38 and 40, exists so far as one paragraph of a speech. That is the one worth preparing for, because there is nothing yet to respond to. Read more →

Regulation 28 Aug 2026 Who Sits on the Board of an Exchange That Trades With Itself? Almost everything in the CFTC's July 2026 conflicts proposal can be built by an engineering team. One requirement cannot: at least 35 percent of a designated contract market's board has to be people who owe the exchange nothing. That expectation has been guidance since 2007, the Commission has twice tried to make it binding and withdrew both times, and the third attempt is open for comment until 5 October 2026. Read more →

Regulation 27 Aug 2026 Nobody Wrote a Public Interest Test for Election Markets The CFTC proposal published on 12 June 2026 says elections, the Nobel Prize and the Academy Awards are contests rather than gaming. That reads like good news for the venues listing them. Read the appendix closely and it is something narrower: leaving one review also means leaving behind the only factor list the proposal ever wrote down. Read more →

Regulation 24 Aug 2026 Britain Splits a Prediction Market by What It Points At The Gambling Commission and the FCA divided prediction markets between them in February and March 2026, and they did it without arguing about jurisdiction. Each asked what the contract references, then routed it. One half got a licence category that has existed since 2000. The other half landed inside a permanent retail ban. The same test is now running in the European Union, and it cuts the book in the opposite direction to Washington State. Read more →

Regulation 23 Aug 2026 There Is No Passport for a Prediction Market in Europe Nine European gambling authorities signed a single statement on prediction markets on 17 June 2026, and their national decisions had already blocked platforms in France, Portugal, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and Spain. Europe never argued about which regulator has jurisdiction. It asked a product question instead, and the test it used is one any venue can run on itself. Read more →

Regulation 22 Aug 2026 Who Is Protected When a Regulator Declares an Emergency? The CFTC ordered a derivatives exchange to stay open on 11 August 2026, and much of the coverage read it as a federal shield. The order itself, and a Connecticut ruling four days later, say something narrower and far more useful to anyone running a venue. Read more →

Regulation 21 Aug 2026 When the Exchange Owns the Market Maker The CFTC has proposed to bar a firm from trading its own money on an exchange it shares an owner with, then hand back one narrow exception for an affiliate that does nothing but make markets. The structure it describes is the one most prediction market venues are built on. Comments close on 5 October 2026, which is why this is worth reading in August rather than after it is settled. Read more →

Regulation 18 Aug 2026 Two Courts, Two Answers: Operating While the Map Contradicts Itself A federal court in New York said states may enforce gambling laws against sports event contracts. Twenty days later a federal court in Minnesota said a state ban was likely preempted. Both read the same statute. Here is what that split, and the Utah, Washington and CFTC actions that followed it, actually means for anyone running a prediction market as of 18 August 2026. Read more →

Insights on responsible prediction markets.