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Regulation trackers, structural analysis and plain-language explainers, written for people who have to decide something, not for the feed.

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Three Letters Asked the CFTC to Act on Someone Else Industry News 5 Sep 2026 Three Letters Asked the CFTC to Act on Someone Else In 2026 seven House members, the largest registered exchange and two senators all wrote to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission about prediction markets. The three letters agree on almost nothing, and they share one shape: each asks the regulator to constrain conduct the writer does not control. None of them commits the writer to anything. Read more → The League Agreement That Counts Has No Logo On It Industry News 29 Aug 2026 The League Agreement That Counts Has No Logo On It The CFTC's June 2026 proposal lists six factors that would weigh in favour of a sports event contract, and two of them describe a relationship rather than a contract. Eighteen months of announcements have produced league deals, regulator memoranda and vendor integrity networks, but the arrangement the rule actually describes sits in the gap between them. Here is what factor five asks for and who has it. Read more → Bought Volume Is Not Demand: The CFTC Incentive Advisory Industry News 20 Aug 2026 Bought Volume Is Not Demand: The CFTC Incentive Advisory On 12 August 2026 the CFTC's Division of Market Oversight issued an advisory on how exchanges self certify incentive programs. It reads as a filing manual, but the checklist it sets out is a design test, and a footnote gives exchanges until 14 September 2026 to review programs they have already certified. Here is what it asks, and why volume bought at a threshold is not the same thing as demand. Read more → A Price Is Not an Odds Line: Display Is a Compliance Signal Industry News 19 Aug 2026 A Price Is Not an Odds Line: Display Is a Compliance Signal On 7 August 2026 the CFTC told regulated venues to stop showing event contract prices in the plus and minus shorthand used by sportsbooks. Read quickly, it is a note about styling. Read properly, it is an anti-fraud letter that treats the surface where the trade happens as part of the product, and it lands while the same platforms are telling courts that their sports contracts are not bets. Read more → The Trust Layer: What a Responsible Prediction Market Must Prove Before It Scales Industry News 2 Apr 2026 The Trust Layer: What a Responsible Prediction Market Must Prove Before It Scales Prediction markets have already built the speed layer: liquidity bursts, headlines, fast-moving contracts, and viral attention. What they still have to prove is the trust layer. A market that wants to scale responsibly must show not only that people want to trade it, but that the venue is governable, the contracts are defensible, the rules are visible, and ordinary users are not being asked to underprice hidden structural risk. Read more → The 2026 Prediction Market Reality Check: Growth, Hype and Structural Fragility Industry News 26 Mar 2026 The 2026 Prediction Market Reality Check: Growth, Hype and Structural Fragility Prediction markets are no longer a niche experiment. They are growing fast, attracting capital, drawing mainstream attention, and forcing regulators to respond. But 2026 also reveals a harder truth: growth is real, yet much of the market still rests on fragile liquidity, sports-driven volume, unresolved legal boundaries, and an integrity framework that remains under construction. Read more → Inside Information Is Not a Side Issue: It Is the Trust Test for Prediction Markets Industry News 24 Mar 2026 Inside Information Is Not a Side Issue: It Is the Trust Test for Prediction Markets Prediction markets cannot scale on the promise of better information while ignoring the question of who is allowed to trade on unfairly better information. Inside information is not a side issue. It is the line between a market that aggregates knowledge and a market that quietly rewards privileged access. Read more → Should War Markets Exist? Yes, but Only Under the Hardest Integrity Standard Industry News 23 Mar 2026 Should War Markets Exist? Yes, but Only Under the Hardest Integrity Standard War markets are the most uncomfortable category in prediction markets, but discomfort alone is not a sufficient argument for prohibition. The real question is whether these markets can exist under a surveillance, eligibility, and sanctions regime strong enough to prevent insider abuse, coercion, and structurally corrupt trading. Read more → Arizona vs. Kalshi: The First Criminal Case That Changes the Conversation Industry News 21 Mar 2026 Arizona vs. Kalshi: The First Criminal Case That Changes the Conversation Prediction markets have spent months fighting state regulators in civil court. Arizona just changed the tone. By filing criminal charges against Kalshi, the state turned a jurisdiction dispute into a far more serious test of whether federally regulated event contracts can still trigger state criminal exposure. Read more →