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Industry News 17 Oct 2026 The Commission Sued Nine States and Not the One That Voided Trades Between 2 April and 23 June 2026 the Commodity Futures Trading Commission went to federal court against nine states over event contracts, filed briefs in three appeals it was not a party to, and twice issued an order of its own. Neither order ran against a state. Both ran against the exchange. Which federal instrument reaches a venue turns out to depend on who filed first and against whom, not on how hard the state pushed, and in several states nothing federal has arrived at all. Read more →

Industry News 7 Oct 2026 Washington Paused Enforcement Twice Before It Enjoined Kalshi Washington agreed in federal court not to enforce its gambling law against Robinhood in May 2026 and against OG in August, while a state judge put Kalshi under a geofence and a daily penalty clause. Same state, same question, two regimes. What the stipulations say, what they do not require, and why the answer to unequal treatment is a common floor. Read more →

Industry News 1 Oct 2026 A Phone Call Changed the Contract and the Rule Did Not Twenty one agricultural trade associations and the National Cattlemen's Beef Association wrote to the CFTC on 30 April 2026 about contracts none of their members trade. Part of what they objected to was fixed by a conversation with the exchange, recorded in a footnote. The proposed rule that followed mentions their concern once, in the cost-benefit section, and the question the Commission itself asked in March about aggregating position limits across a shared reference is still unanswered. Read more →

Industry News 27 Sep 2026 The Meeting Memo Names Everyone in the Room but Not the Argument Three filings in the CFTC prediction markets docket are not comment letters but records of meetings. They publish every name in the room and almost nothing about what was asked for, and a footnote in the proposal folds those rooms into the views of commenters. Here is what the record actually shows as of 27 September 2026, and what an operator can publish that the memo will not. Read more →

Industry News 19 Sep 2026 The Only Comments Still Arriving Come From Tribal Governments The comment period on the CFTC's prediction markets proposal closed on 27 July 2026, yet submissions were still being posted in the middle of September. We counted the whole docket on 19 September 2026: 1,397 filings, 148 named organisations, and 65 of those organisations tribal. The list of who turned up says more about where this category stands than any single letter in it does. Read more →

Industry News 5 Sep 2026 Three Letters Asked the CFTC to Act on Someone Else In 2026 seven House members, the largest registered exchange and two senators all wrote to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission about prediction markets. The three letters agree on almost nothing, and they share one shape: each asks the regulator to constrain conduct the writer does not control. None of them commits the writer to anything. Read more →

Industry News 29 Aug 2026 The League Agreement That Counts Has No Logo On It The CFTC's June 2026 proposal lists six factors that would weigh in favour of a sports event contract, and two of them describe a relationship rather than a contract. Eighteen months of announcements have produced league deals, regulator memoranda and vendor integrity networks, but the arrangement the rule actually describes sits in the gap between them. Here is what factor five asks for and who has it. Read more →

Industry News 20 Aug 2026 Bought Volume Is Not Demand: The CFTC Incentive Advisory On 12 August 2026 the CFTC's Division of Market Oversight issued an advisory on how exchanges self certify incentive programs. It reads as a filing manual, but the checklist it sets out is a design test, and a footnote gives exchanges until 14 September 2026 to review programs they have already certified. Here is what it asks, and why volume bought at a threshold is not the same thing as demand. Read more →

Industry News 19 Aug 2026 A Price Is Not an Odds Line: Display Is a Compliance Signal On 7 August 2026 the CFTC told regulated venues to stop showing event contract prices in the plus and minus shorthand used by sportsbooks. Read quickly, it is a note about styling. Read properly, it is an anti-fraud letter that treats the surface where the trade happens as part of the product, and it lands while the same platforms are telling courts that their sports contracts are not bets. Read more →

Industry News 2 Apr 2026 The Trust Layer: What a Responsible Prediction Market Must Prove Before It Scales Prediction markets have already built the speed layer: liquidity bursts, headlines, fast-moving contracts, and viral attention. What they still have to prove is the trust layer. A market that wants to scale responsibly must show not only that people want to trade it, but that the venue is governable, the contracts are defensible, the rules are visible, and ordinary users are not being asked to underprice hidden structural risk. Read more →

Industry News 26 Mar 2026 The 2026 Prediction Market Reality Check: Growth, Hype and Structural Fragility Prediction markets are no longer a niche experiment. They are growing fast, attracting capital, drawing mainstream attention, and forcing regulators to respond. But 2026 also reveals a harder truth: growth is real, yet much of the market still rests on fragile liquidity, sports-driven volume, unresolved legal boundaries, and an integrity framework that remains under construction. Read more →

Industry News 24 Mar 2026 Inside Information Is Not a Side Issue: It Is the Trust Test for Prediction Markets Prediction markets cannot scale on the promise of better information while ignoring the question of who is allowed to trade on unfairly better information. Inside information is not a side issue. It is the line between a market that aggregates knowledge and a market that quietly rewards privileged access. Read more →

Insights on responsible prediction markets.