Prediction markets are no longer a niche experiment. They are growing fast, attracting capital, drawing mainstream attention, and forcing regulators to respond. But 2026 also reveals a harder truth: growth is real, yet much of the market still rests on fragile liquidity, sports-driven volume, unresolved legal boundaries, and an integrity framework that remains under construction.
Read more →
Prediction markets cannot scale on the promise of better information while ignoring the question of who is allowed to trade on unfairly better information. Inside information is not a side issue. It is the line between a market that aggregates knowledge and a market that quietly rewards privileged access.
Read more →
War markets are the most uncomfortable category in prediction markets, but discomfort alone is not a sufficient argument for prohibition. The real question is whether these markets can exist under a surveillance, eligibility, and sanctions regime strong enough to prevent insider abuse, coercion, and structurally corrupt trading.
Read more →
Prediction markets have spent months fighting state regulators in civil court. Arizona just changed the tone. By filing criminal charges against Kalshi, the state turned a jurisdiction dispute into a far more serious test of whether federally regulated event contracts can still trigger state criminal exposure.
Read more →