Insights on responsible prediction markets.
Regulation trackers, structural analysis and plain-language explainers, written for people who have to decide something, not for the feed.
Regulation
17 Aug 2026
The Gaming Definition Is a Measuring Stick, Not a Threat
For years the fight over prediction markets turned on a word nobody had defined. The CFTC proposal published on 12 June 2026 defines it, and in doing so hands every operator something more useful than a warning: a written test they can run against their own order book before anyone runs it for them.
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Regulation
1 Apr 2026
Prediction Markets Legal Tracker: March 2026
March 2026 may prove to be the month when prediction markets stopped looking like a fast-growing niche and started looking like a full legal category under pressure from every direction at once. Federal rulemaking, staff advisories, state lawsuits, criminal charges, and new legislative proposals are now converging on the same question: what kind of prediction market will be allowed to survive.
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Regulation
27 Mar 2026
Venue Risk: You Are Not Only Trading the Event
Prediction markets are often sold as clean bets on future outcomes. In reality, you are rarely trading the event alone. You are also trading the legal durability of the venue, the stability of your access, the strength of the platform's jurisdictional position, and the probability that the market will still function the same way when you need it most.
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Regulation
25 Mar 2026
The Responsible Listing Standard: Which Markets Should Never Be Listed
Prediction markets do not fail only when they are manipulated. They also fail when the contract itself is structurally indefensible from the moment it is listed. A responsible market standard must identify not only how trading should be supervised, but which market designs should never be offered at all.
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Regulation
22 Mar 2026
Polymarket's Two-Front Reality: U.S. Comeback, European Blocks, and the New Jurisdiction Standard
Polymarket is no longer just an offshore platform under pressure or a comeback story in the United States. It is now something more important for the whole sector: a live example of how prediction markets are being split by jurisdiction, legal entity, and compliance architecture.
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Regulation
20 Mar 2026
CFTC Rulemaking 2026: The First Real Blueprint for Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are no longer being shaped only by lawsuits, state attacks, or platform growth headlines. The CFTC has now opened a formal rulemaking process that could define what belongs on these markets, how they must be supervised, and what responsible participation should actually mean.
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Regulation
17 Mar 2026
The Regulatory Reckoning: Why Polymarket, Kalshi, and the CFTC Are Forcing a New Market Standard
Prediction markets are no longer split between a regulated future and an offshore present. Polymarket, Kalshi, and the CFTC are now forcing the same conclusion: scale requires a real standard for jurisdiction, market design, surveillance, and trader protection.
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