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Education 4 Sep 2026 Geoblocking Stops the Next Trade and Leaves the Open One Geofencing answers who may place the next trade. It says nothing about the contracts a blocked user already holds, and in the summer of 2026 that gap produced two orders pointing in opposite directions. A Michigan court told KalshiEX to void and refund executed trades. On 14 July 2026 the Commodity Futures Trading Commission stayed the exchange's emergency rule and ordered the same trades fulfilled. Here is what the sequence shows about the rules a venue should write before it loses a state. Read more →

Regulation 3 Sep 2026 Congress Preempted State Gaming Law Everywhere the Exchange Is Not The Commodity Exchange Act uses the words preempt and gaming in a single sentence, and that sentence describes venues a designated contract market is not. A Utah court read it that way on 4 August 2026, the Ninth Circuit worked around it on 28 August, and the Third Circuit had already gone the other way in April. On 2 September 2026 New Jersey asked the Supreme Court to settle the question. Here is what the clause actually says, and what a venue can build that does not depend on how the argument ends. Read more →

Regulation 1 Sep 2026 The Category Tabs Became the Boundary of an Injunction A King County judge did not close Kalshi in Washington. He sorted its book, stopping seven subject areas and leaving four trading, and he described the split using the category tabs the platform publishes to its own users. One category on the court's list of the platform ended up in neither half. With a geofencing deadline of 2 September 2026 and a named vendor written into the order, this is what listing classification looks like when someone else does it for you. Read more →

Regulation 31 Aug 2026 The Consumer Protection Rule Exists Only as a Sentence On 20 August 2026 the CFTC gave prediction markets fifty minutes of its first Innovation Advisory Committee meeting, and Chairman Michael S. Selig used the occasion to preview three rulemakings. Two of them are published documents anyone can read and comment on. The third, which would put consumer protection requirements into Parts 38 and 40, exists so far as one paragraph of a speech. That is the one worth preparing for, because there is nothing yet to respond to. Read more →

Education 30 Aug 2026 Forty Questions Went Out and Two Rules Came Back The CFTC asked forty numbered questions about prediction markets in March 2026 and got roughly 3,500 answers. The number travels well and explains almost nothing. What the record actually shows is that a few hundred submissions did the work, seventeen letters reached the footnotes of the rule that followed, and whole sections of the questionnaire have produced no proposal at all. Read more →

Industry News 29 Aug 2026 The League Agreement That Counts Has No Logo On It The CFTC's June 2026 proposal lists six factors that would weigh in favour of a sports event contract, and two of them describe a relationship rather than a contract. Eighteen months of announcements have produced league deals, regulator memoranda and vendor integrity networks, but the arrangement the rule actually describes sits in the gap between them. Here is what factor five asks for and who has it. Read more →

Regulation 28 Aug 2026 Who Sits on the Board of an Exchange That Trades With Itself? Almost everything in the CFTC's July 2026 conflicts proposal can be built by an engineering team. One requirement cannot: at least 35 percent of a designated contract market's board has to be people who owe the exchange nothing. That expectation has been guidance since 2007, the Commission has twice tried to make it binding and withdrew both times, and the third attempt is open for comment until 5 October 2026. Read more →

Regulation 27 Aug 2026 Nobody Wrote a Public Interest Test for Election Markets The CFTC proposal published on 12 June 2026 says elections, the Nobel Prize and the Academy Awards are contests rather than gaming. That reads like good news for the venues listing them. Read the appendix closely and it is something narrower: leaving one review also means leaving behind the only factor list the proposal ever wrote down. Read more →

Education 26 Aug 2026 The Right to Respond Is Only Worth What You Can File The June 2026 proposal gives a prediction market real procedural rights for the first time: a written determination, a statement of concerns, a response, and a look at the staff recommendation before the Commission votes. Every one of them is a deadline to file something. Read as a schedule rather than as a protection, the proposed rule is a list of documents a venue either has ready or does not. Read more →

Education 25 Aug 2026 Open Interest Fell While Volume Set a Record In July 2026 prediction market volume hit an all time high of $50.59 billion while open interest on the same venues was falling. Both numbers are accurate, and the difference between them is the difference between attention and commitment. Read more →

Regulation 24 Aug 2026 Britain Splits a Prediction Market by What It Points At The Gambling Commission and the FCA divided prediction markets between them in February and March 2026, and they did it without arguing about jurisdiction. Each asked what the contract references, then routed it. One half got a licence category that has existed since 2000. The other half landed inside a permanent retail ban. The same test is now running in the European Union, and it cuts the book in the opposite direction to Washington State. Read more →

Regulation 23 Aug 2026 There Is No Passport for a Prediction Market in Europe Nine European gambling authorities signed a single statement on prediction markets on 17 June 2026, and their national decisions had already blocked platforms in France, Portugal, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and Spain. Europe never argued about which regulator has jurisdiction. It asked a product question instead, and the test it used is one any venue can run on itself. Read more →

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