Insights on responsible prediction markets.
Regulation trackers, structural analysis and plain-language explainers, written for people who have to decide something, not for the feed.
Platform Reviews
7 Oct 2026
What Would a Geolocation Affidavit Have to Show a Judge?
Washington and Nevada did not just order Kalshi to block users in their states. They named the vendor, set the dates and made a sworn affidavit on diligence the only alternative to a daily penalty. Location checking has become a regulated product layer, and this is what a venue should be able to say about it before a court asks.
Read more →
Industry News
7 Oct 2026
Washington Paused Enforcement Twice Before It Enjoined Kalshi
Washington agreed in federal court not to enforce its gambling law against Robinhood in May 2026 and against OG in August, while a state judge put Kalshi under a geofence and a daily penalty clause. Same state, same question, two regimes. What the stipulations say, what they do not require, and why the answer to unequal treatment is a common floor.
Read more →
Education
5 Oct 2026
The Case That Settled This Never Used the Word Gambling
Chairman Selig told the Innovation Advisory Committee on 20 August 2026 that prediction markets face the argument that was used against the Chicago Board of Trade. We read the documents his footnotes cite. The name lost every time it was tested, and the measurement is still unanswered.
Read more →
Education
4 Oct 2026
The Clock on Cooperation Credit Starts Inside the Exchange
The CFTC published its new cooperation policy on 19 May 2026 and it reads like a schedule of penalty discounts. Read from an exchange compliance desk it is something narrower, because the clause deciding whether a self-report counts as voluntary names the exchange itself.
Read more →
Regulation
3 Oct 2026
The Listing Test Arrived Fifty-Three Days After the Order
KalshiEX listed a contract on whether George Santos would attend the 2026 State of the Union on 22 January 2026. He traded both sides of it. The CFTC settled a manipulation case on 31 July 2026, and on 22 September 2026 the Division of Market Oversight published the listing test that the contract would have had to pass. The order and the advisory describe the same design flaw from opposite ends, and only one of them arrives before money is at risk.
Read more →
Education
2 Oct 2026
Who Reads Ten Event Contract Certifications Every Business Day?
The CFTC product register holds 2,067 certified event products dated 2026, about ten and a half for every business day, and Regulation 40.2 leaves one business day between a filing and a listing. The Commission has written down what follows, and it puts the decisive filter inside the exchange.
Read more →
Industry News
1 Oct 2026
A Phone Call Changed the Contract and the Rule Did Not
Twenty one agricultural trade associations and the National Cattlemen's Beef Association wrote to the CFTC on 30 April 2026 about contracts none of their members trade. Part of what they objected to was fixed by a conversation with the exchange, recorded in a footnote. The proposed rule that followed mentions their concern once, in the cost-benefit section, and the question the Commission itself asked in March about aggregating position limits across a shared reference is still unanswered.
Read more →
Education
29 Sep 2026
Why Does an Availability Market Still Ban the Team Doctor?
The CFTC would disfavour a contract that settles on a named player's diagnosis. Two exchanges moved settlement onto the official gamebook instead, and then wrote club medical staff and athletic trainers into their own restricted lists. The sensitive input is already identified. The person it belongs to still has no standing anywhere in the file.
Read more →
Regulation
28 Sep 2026
The Contract Was Legal Until the Buyer Stood on Tribal Land
Exchanges keep a jurisdiction map with a federal layer and a state layer. On 16 September 2026 the Ninth Circuit added a third one, held that the Commodity Exchange Act does not displace the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act on Indian lands, and made the decisive fact the buyer's physical position. The new layer is measured in parcels.
Read more →
Industry News
27 Sep 2026
The Meeting Memo Names Everyone in the Room but Not the Argument
Three filings in the CFTC prediction markets docket are not comment letters but records of meetings. They publish every name in the room and almost nothing about what was asked for, and a footnote in the proposal folds those rooms into the views of commenters. Here is what the record actually shows as of 27 September 2026, and what an operator can publish that the memo will not.
Read more →
Education
26 Sep 2026
A Kicker Missing a Field Goal Became a Rulemaking Question
Two letters from the National Football League contain the most detailed user protection specification anywhere in the prediction market record. Almost every item matches what this initiative asks its signatories to build. None of it was written by anyone in the category, and the league went to the exchanges first.
Read more →
Education
25 Sep 2026
This Time the Questions Came Before the Contracts
The CFTC asked twenty three listing questions about compute derivatives before a single contract exists. It asked the same kind of questions about event contracts after exchanges certified roughly 1,600 of them in one year. The order is not fate, and an exchange can choose it too.
Read more →