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Regulation trackers, structural analysis and plain-language explainers, written for people who have to decide something, not for the feed.

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Venue Risk: You Are Not Only Trading the Event Regulation 27 Mar 2026 Venue Risk: You Are Not Only Trading the Event Prediction markets are often sold as clean bets on future outcomes. In reality, you are rarely trading the event alone. You are also trading the legal durability of the venue, the stability of your access, the strength of the platform's jurisdictional position, and the probability that the market will still function the same way when you need it most. Read more → The 2026 Prediction Market Reality Check: Growth, Hype and Structural Fragility Industry News 26 Mar 2026 The 2026 Prediction Market Reality Check: Growth, Hype and Structural Fragility Prediction markets are no longer a niche experiment. They are growing fast, attracting capital, drawing mainstream attention, and forcing regulators to respond. But 2026 also reveals a harder truth: growth is real, yet much of the market still rests on fragile liquidity, sports-driven volume, unresolved legal boundaries, and an integrity framework that remains under construction. Read more → The Responsible Listing Standard: Which Markets Should Never Be Listed Regulation 25 Mar 2026 The Responsible Listing Standard: Which Markets Should Never Be Listed Prediction markets do not fail only when they are manipulated. They also fail when the contract itself is structurally indefensible from the moment it is listed. A responsible market standard must identify not only how trading should be supervised, but which market designs should never be offered at all. Read more → Inside Information Is Not a Side Issue: It Is the Trust Test for Prediction Markets Industry News 24 Mar 2026 Inside Information Is Not a Side Issue: It Is the Trust Test for Prediction Markets Prediction markets cannot scale on the promise of better information while ignoring the question of who is allowed to trade on unfairly better information. Inside information is not a side issue. It is the line between a market that aggregates knowledge and a market that quietly rewards privileged access. Read more → Should War Markets Exist? Yes, but Only Under the Hardest Integrity Standard Industry News 23 Mar 2026 Should War Markets Exist? Yes, but Only Under the Hardest Integrity Standard War markets are the most uncomfortable category in prediction markets, but discomfort alone is not a sufficient argument for prohibition. The real question is whether these markets can exist under a surveillance, eligibility, and sanctions regime strong enough to prevent insider abuse, coercion, and structurally corrupt trading. Read more → Polymarket's Two-Front Reality: U.S. Comeback, European Blocks, and the New Jurisdiction Standard Regulation 22 Mar 2026 Polymarket's Two-Front Reality: U.S. Comeback, European Blocks, and the New Jurisdiction Standard Polymarket is no longer just an offshore platform under pressure or a comeback story in the United States. It is now something more important for the whole sector: a live example of how prediction markets are being split by jurisdiction, legal entity, and compliance architecture. Read more → Arizona vs. Kalshi: The First Criminal Case That Changes the Conversation Industry News 21 Mar 2026 Arizona vs. Kalshi: The First Criminal Case That Changes the Conversation Prediction markets have spent months fighting state regulators in civil court. Arizona just changed the tone. By filing criminal charges against Kalshi, the state turned a jurisdiction dispute into a far more serious test of whether federally regulated event contracts can still trigger state criminal exposure. Read more → CFTC Rulemaking 2026: The First Real Blueprint for Prediction Markets Regulation 20 Mar 2026 CFTC Rulemaking 2026: The First Real Blueprint for Prediction Markets Prediction markets are no longer being shaped only by lawsuits, state attacks, or platform growth headlines. The CFTC has now opened a formal rulemaking process that could define what belongs on these markets, how they must be supervised, and what responsible participation should actually mean. Read more → The Multibillion Dollar Illusion: Spread, Slippage and the Hidden Cost of Prediction Markets Education 19 Mar 2026 The Multibillion Dollar Illusion: Spread, Slippage and the Hidden Cost of Prediction Markets Prediction markets can post massive headline volume while many individual contracts remain expensive to trade. The real cost is often not the listed fee, but the gap between the price you see, the price you can actually execute, and the price you can later exit. Read more → The Psychology of the Trade: How FOMO and Crowd Euphoria Destroy Portfolios Education 18 Mar 2026 The Psychology of the Trade: How FOMO and Crowd Euphoria Destroy Portfolios Prediction markets do not punish emotion because emotion is immoral. They punish it because binary pricing makes late, hype driven entries mathematically fragile. The real danger is not excitement itself, but confusing public attention with genuine edge. Read more → The Regulatory Reckoning: Why Polymarket, Kalshi, and the CFTC Are Forcing a New Market Standard Regulation 17 Mar 2026 The Regulatory Reckoning: Why Polymarket, Kalshi, and the CFTC Are Forcing a New Market Standard Prediction markets are no longer split between a regulated future and an offshore present. Polymarket, Kalshi, and the CFTC are now forcing the same conclusion: scale requires a real standard for jurisdiction, market design, surveillance, and trader protection. Read more →
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