An initiative of responsiblo
Predict responsibly .
Blog

Insights on responsible prediction markets.

Regulation trackers, structural analysis and plain-language explainers, written for people who have to decide something, not for the feed.

All Industry News Education Platform Reviews Regulation
Fourteen Governance Rules Went In and Three Came Back Smaller Regulation 24 Sep 2026 Fourteen Governance Rules Went In and Three Came Back Smaller A CFTC proposal on exchange governance was published in March 2024, withdrawn in September 2025 and partly revived in August 2026. Reading the two documents against each other shows which requirements never came back, and what a prediction market can adopt without waiting. Read more → Six Hundred Thousand People Are Covered by a List That Does Not Exist Education 22 Sep 2026 Six Hundred Thousand People Are Covered by a List That Does Not Exist A sports contract has a team sheet. An election contract is settled by 6,461 local jurisdictions and 675,434 poll workers, every one of whom already falls under the insider rule an exchange has written. Nobody holds that list. Read more → A Teleprompter Operator Was on Nobody's Restricted List Platform Reviews 21 Sep 2026 A Teleprompter Operator Was on Nobody's Restricted List On 28 August 2026 the CFTC settled an insider trading case built on misappropriated government information, and the contracts at the centre of it were mention markets, bets on whether a word would be spoken. That product sits outside every box the Commission spent 2026 drawing. The order describes it better than the rulemaking does, and the only duty that reached it was the oldest one in the statute. Read more → The Regulator Would See Four Hundred Traders Instead of a Million Regulation 20 Sep 2026 The Regulator Would See Four Hundred Traders Instead of a Million Most of the 2026 argument about prediction markets has been about whether they may exist and who gets to decide. A quieter Federal Register document settles something else: how much of what happens inside them anyone outside will ever see. The CFTC proposed it on 1 July 2026, took comments for thirty days, and has not finished it. Its reporting thresholds would cut the number of traders the Commission routinely sees from more than a million to about four hundred. Read more → The Only Comments Still Arriving Come From Tribal Governments Industry News 19 Sep 2026 The Only Comments Still Arriving Come From Tribal Governments The comment period on the CFTC's prediction markets proposal closed on 27 July 2026, yet submissions were still being posted in the middle of September. We counted the whole docket on 19 September 2026: 1,397 filings, 148 named organisations, and 65 of those organisations tribal. The list of who turned up says more about where this category stands than any single letter in it does. Read more → Why Has No Event Contract Taken the Approval Path Since 1995? Education 18 Sep 2026 Why Has No Event Contract Taken the Approval Path Since 1995? American exchanges can list an event contract in two ways. They can certify it themselves and trade the next morning, or they can ask the CFTC to approve it first and wait out a forty five day review. Filter the Commission's own product database for approved event contracts and you get eighteen records, all of them crop yield insurance from 1995. The slower route is not dead, though. One exchange used it four times in 2026, just never for an event contract. Read more → The Same Division Sent the Same Filing Advice Twice in Four Months Education 17 Sep 2026 The Same Division Sent the Same Filing Advice Twice in Four Months On 12 March 2026 the CFTC's Division of Market Oversight described what a defensible event contract filing contains. On 24 July 2026 the same division published a second advisory recording that many exchanges had carried on filing broad templates anyway. Between those two dates the Commission proposed a review in which day thirty is the only place a contract can be amended. The standard was never withheld. It was published and free to read. Read more → Three Million Users Arrived and Nobody Counts Who Stayed Education 16 Sep 2026 Three Million Users Arrived and Nobody Counts Who Stayed Kalshi confirmed three million new accounts during the World Cup. Two months later nobody outside the company can say how many of them still trade, because volume is reported and people are not. The one public study of an event cohort is on chain, covers a single venue and found most traders gone inside two months. Read more → The Same Name Covers Two Different Rulebooks Platform Reviews 15 Sep 2026 The Same Name Covers Two Different Rulebooks One brand, two legal entities, two rulebooks and a single volume figure that covers both. A reader who sees the combined number cannot tell which regime holds their money, publishes their market data or decides who was right. The split is documented. It is just not documented where the trade happens. Read more → Everything Brussels Did Not Ask About Goes In One Box Education 14 Sep 2026 Everything Brussels Did Not Ask About Goes In One Box The MiCA review closes on 30 September 2026 and its five prediction market questions are narrow. Question 86 is the only place in the document for everything else, and it is the first time the category has appeared in an EU file at all. Read more → Four Authorities Have Four Names for the Same Contract Education 13 Sep 2026 Four Authorities Have Four Names for the Same Contract The word bet appears exactly once in the Commission's MiCA review consultation, in the sentence that describes prediction markets. Brussels, Washington, Paris and London each use a different name for the same instrument, and not one of them classifies it by the name. All four sort on construction: what the contract pays, what it points at, who is on the other side. That is the part an operator can write, and the file closes on 30 September 2026. Read more → Every Leg Must Win and Nobody Publishes How Often That Happens Education 12 Sep 2026 Every Leg Must Win and Nobody Publishes How Often That Happens Kalshi opened combined contracts to every user on 15 December 2025. By August 2026 combinations were half of the tracked United States sports contract volume. Across four CFTC rulemaking documents published in the same year, running to roughly 195,800 words, the word parlay does not appear once. The product that carries the most money is the one the rulebook never names. Read more →
Newer articles More articles