An initiative of responsiblo
Predict responsibly .
Blog

Insights on responsible prediction markets.

Regulation trackers, structural analysis and plain-language explainers, written for people who have to decide something, not for the feed.

All Industry News Education Platform Reviews Regulation
Only Nine Companies Hold the Licence a Prediction Market Needs Platform Reviews 11 Sep 2026 Only Nine Companies Hold the Licence a Prediction Market Needs In February 2026 the Gambling Commission said a prediction market operating in Great Britain would look like a betting intermediary, a category that has existed since betting exchanges launched in 2000. That answer pointed at an open route rather than a closed door. We went to the public register on 11 September 2026 to see who is actually on it. Nine companies hold an active remote betting intermediary licence, eight more have let one go since 2024, and the best known prediction market brand in Britain reaches its users on a licence that belongs to somebody else. Read more → The Licence Does Not Disappear When the Retail Client Does Education 10 Sep 2026 The Licence Does Not Disappear When the Retail Client Does Every operator who reads the European binary options ban reaches the same idea within an afternoon: keep the product and drop the retail user. It clears one obstacle and leaves a second one standing, because the ban is bounded by client category and the licensing duty is not. ESMA said so on 3 July 2026 under a heading of its own, and the rest of the European map does not soften the answer. Read more → The Commission Left the Requirements Box Empty Until 30 September Regulation 9 Sep 2026 The Commission Left the Requirements Box Empty Until 30 September The European Commission has a section on prediction markets in its MiCA review, and the question that matters in it has no answer options at all. It asks what substantive requirements should apply to firms running these venues. The box is empty, the deadline is 30 September 2026, and whatever the industry does not write there will be written by someone else. Read more → Which Rulebook Applies When an Event Contract Is a Token? Regulation 8 Sep 2026 Which Rulebook Applies When an Event Contract Is a Token? ESMA spent one footnote of its 3 July 2026 statement on tokenised event contracts, and that sentence moves a whole product class into MiCA. Two days earlier the MiCA transitional period closed. Until 30 September 2026 the European Commission is asking whether this is the right rulebook at all, and prediction market operators are the people who can answer. Read more → The Clearing House Conflict Arrives With the First Margin Call Education 7 Sep 2026 The Clearing House Conflict Arrives With the First Margin Call Both large US prediction market venues own the clearing house that settles their trades, and in both cases a company under the same ownership clears there as a member. Section IV of the CFTC proposal published on 6 August 2026 is the first federal document to name that structure. Comments close on 5 October 2026. Read more → The First Screen a Trader Sees Belongs to Someone Else Platform Reviews 6 Sep 2026 The First Screen a Trader Sees Belongs to Someone Else The CFTC letter of 7 August 2026 is remembered for banning bookmaker odds. Its closing request asks venues to review the information displayed or used by their partners and affiliates, which is a sentence about a layer rather than a format. Most first contact with this category happens on a screen the exchange does not own, and the rules for that screen already exist in a rulebook almost nobody cites. Read more → Three Letters Asked the CFTC to Act on Someone Else Industry News 5 Sep 2026 Three Letters Asked the CFTC to Act on Someone Else In 2026 seven House members, the largest registered exchange and two senators all wrote to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission about prediction markets. The three letters agree on almost nothing, and they share one shape: each asks the regulator to constrain conduct the writer does not control. None of them commits the writer to anything. Read more → Geoblocking Stops the Next Trade and Leaves the Open One Education 4 Sep 2026 Geoblocking Stops the Next Trade and Leaves the Open One Geofencing answers who may place the next trade. It says nothing about the contracts a blocked user already holds, and in the summer of 2026 that gap produced two orders pointing in opposite directions. A Michigan court told KalshiEX to void and refund executed trades. On 14 July 2026 the Commodity Futures Trading Commission stayed the exchange's emergency rule and ordered the same trades fulfilled. Here is what the sequence shows about the rules a venue should write before it loses a state. Read more → Congress Preempted State Gaming Law Everywhere the Exchange Is Not Regulation 3 Sep 2026 Congress Preempted State Gaming Law Everywhere the Exchange Is Not The Commodity Exchange Act uses the words preempt and gaming in a single sentence, and that sentence describes venues a designated contract market is not. A Utah court read it that way on 4 August 2026, the Ninth Circuit worked around it on 28 August, and the Third Circuit had already gone the other way in April. On 2 September 2026 New Jersey asked the Supreme Court to settle the question. Here is what the clause actually says, and what a venue can build that does not depend on how the argument ends. Read more → The Category Tabs Became the Boundary of an Injunction Regulation 1 Sep 2026 The Category Tabs Became the Boundary of an Injunction A King County judge did not close Kalshi in Washington. He sorted its book, stopping seven subject areas and leaving four trading, and he described the split using the category tabs the platform publishes to its own users. One category on the court's list of the platform ended up in neither half. With a geofencing deadline of 2 September 2026 and a named vendor written into the order, this is what listing classification looks like when someone else does it for you. Read more → The Consumer Protection Rule Exists Only as a Sentence Regulation 31 Aug 2026 The Consumer Protection Rule Exists Only as a Sentence On 20 August 2026 the CFTC gave prediction markets fifty minutes of its first Innovation Advisory Committee meeting, and Chairman Michael S. Selig used the occasion to preview three rulemakings. Two of them are published documents anyone can read and comment on. The third, which would put consumer protection requirements into Parts 38 and 40, exists so far as one paragraph of a speech. That is the one worth preparing for, because there is nothing yet to respond to. Read more → Forty Questions Went Out and Two Rules Came Back Education 30 Aug 2026 Forty Questions Went Out and Two Rules Came Back The CFTC asked forty numbered questions about prediction markets in March 2026 and got roughly 3,500 answers. The number travels well and explains almost nothing. What the record actually shows is that a few hundred submissions did the work, seventeen letters reached the footnotes of the rule that followed, and whole sections of the questionnaire have produced no proposal at all. Read more →
Newer articles More articles