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Insights on responsible prediction markets.

Regulation trackers, structural analysis and plain-language explainers, written for people who have to decide something, not for the feed.

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The Gaming Definition Is a Measuring Stick, Not a Threat Regulation 17 Aug 2026 The Gaming Definition Is a Measuring Stick, Not a Threat For years the fight over prediction markets turned on a word nobody had defined. The CFTC proposal published on 12 June 2026 defines it, and in doing so hands every operator something more useful than a warning: a written test they can run against their own order book before anyone runs it for them. Read more → The Trust Layer: What a Responsible Prediction Market Must Prove Before It Scales Industry News 2 Apr 2026 The Trust Layer: What a Responsible Prediction Market Must Prove Before It Scales Prediction markets have already built the speed layer: liquidity bursts, headlines, fast-moving contracts, and viral attention. What they still have to prove is the trust layer. A market that wants to scale responsibly must show not only that people want to trade it, but that the venue is governable, the contracts are defensible, the rules are visible, and ordinary users are not being asked to underprice hidden structural risk. Read more → Prediction Markets Legal Tracker: March 2026 Regulation 1 Apr 2026 Prediction Markets Legal Tracker: March 2026 March 2026 may prove to be the month when prediction markets stopped looking like a fast-growing niche and started looking like a full legal category under pressure from every direction at once. Federal rulemaking, staff advisories, state lawsuits, criminal charges, and new legislative proposals are now converging on the same question: what kind of prediction market will be allowed to survive. Read more → Margin and Leverage: The Next Big Fault Line in Prediction Markets Education 31 Mar 2026 Margin and Leverage: The Next Big Fault Line in Prediction Markets Prediction markets today are generally fully collateralized, which naturally limits some of the worst retail risks. That may not remain true forever. Once margin and leverage enter the category, the entire risk profile changes, and so does the difference between a responsible market and a dangerous one. Read more → Numbers That Matter: The 10 Metrics That Actually Describe a Prediction Market Education 30 Mar 2026 Numbers That Matter: The 10 Metrics That Actually Describe a Prediction Market Prediction markets love headline numbers: total volume, number of listed contracts, users, and media mentions. But those metrics often say very little about whether a market is actually tradable, fair, resilient, or useful. A serious evaluation starts with the numbers that describe quality, not just activity. Read more → Sports Contracts: The Growth Engine and the Weakest Legal Flank Education 29 Mar 2026 Sports Contracts: The Growth Engine and the Weakest Legal Flank Sports contracts are helping prediction markets scale faster than any other category. They are easy to understand, easy to distribute, and easy to trade. But they are also where the industry looks most vulnerable to gambling comparisons, manipulation concerns, insider-risk, and direct conflict with state regulators. Read more → Settlement Risk: Being Right Is Not Enough Education 28 Mar 2026 Settlement Risk: Being Right Is Not Enough Prediction markets are not won only by forecasting the event correctly. They are also won or lost through contract wording, resolution sources, fallback rules, dispute procedures, and the venue's ability to turn a messy real-world event into a fair and final settlement. If you do not understand the settlement layer, you are not only trading the event. You are trading ambiguity. Read more → Venue Risk: You Are Not Only Trading the Event Regulation 27 Mar 2026 Venue Risk: You Are Not Only Trading the Event Prediction markets are often sold as clean bets on future outcomes. In reality, you are rarely trading the event alone. You are also trading the legal durability of the venue, the stability of your access, the strength of the platform's jurisdictional position, and the probability that the market will still function the same way when you need it most. Read more → The 2026 Prediction Market Reality Check: Growth, Hype and Structural Fragility Industry News 26 Mar 2026 The 2026 Prediction Market Reality Check: Growth, Hype and Structural Fragility Prediction markets are no longer a niche experiment. They are growing fast, attracting capital, drawing mainstream attention, and forcing regulators to respond. But 2026 also reveals a harder truth: growth is real, yet much of the market still rests on fragile liquidity, sports-driven volume, unresolved legal boundaries, and an integrity framework that remains under construction. Read more → The Responsible Listing Standard: Which Markets Should Never Be Listed Regulation 25 Mar 2026 The Responsible Listing Standard: Which Markets Should Never Be Listed Prediction markets do not fail only when they are manipulated. They also fail when the contract itself is structurally indefensible from the moment it is listed. A responsible market standard must identify not only how trading should be supervised, but which market designs should never be offered at all. Read more → Inside Information Is Not a Side Issue: It Is the Trust Test for Prediction Markets Industry News 24 Mar 2026 Inside Information Is Not a Side Issue: It Is the Trust Test for Prediction Markets Prediction markets cannot scale on the promise of better information while ignoring the question of who is allowed to trade on unfairly better information. Inside information is not a side issue. It is the line between a market that aggregates knowledge and a market that quietly rewards privileged access. Read more → Should War Markets Exist? Yes, but Only Under the Hardest Integrity Standard Industry News 23 Mar 2026 Should War Markets Exist? Yes, but Only Under the Hardest Integrity Standard War markets are the most uncomfortable category in prediction markets, but discomfort alone is not a sufficient argument for prohibition. The real question is whether these markets can exist under a surveillance, eligibility, and sanctions regime strong enough to prevent insider abuse, coercion, and structurally corrupt trading. Read more →
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