Insights on responsible prediction markets.
Regulation trackers, structural analysis and plain-language explainers, written for people who have to decide something, not for the feed.
Regulation
22 Mar 2026
Polymarket's Two-Front Reality: U.S. Comeback, European Blocks, and the New Jurisdiction Standard
Polymarket is no longer just an offshore platform under pressure or a comeback story in the United States. It is now something more important for the whole sector: a live example of how prediction markets are being split by jurisdiction, legal entity, and compliance architecture.
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Industry News
21 Mar 2026
Arizona vs. Kalshi: The First Criminal Case That Changes the Conversation
Prediction markets have spent months fighting state regulators in civil court. Arizona just changed the tone. By filing criminal charges against Kalshi, the state turned a jurisdiction dispute into a far more serious test of whether federally regulated event contracts can still trigger state criminal exposure.
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Regulation
20 Mar 2026
CFTC Rulemaking 2026: The First Real Blueprint for Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are no longer being shaped only by lawsuits, state attacks, or platform growth headlines. The CFTC has now opened a formal rulemaking process that could define what belongs on these markets, how they must be supervised, and what responsible participation should actually mean.
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Education
19 Mar 2026
The Multibillion Dollar Illusion: Spread, Slippage and the Hidden Cost of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets can post massive headline volume while many individual contracts remain expensive to trade. The real cost is often not the listed fee, but the gap between the price you see, the price you can actually execute, and the price you can later exit.
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Education
18 Mar 2026
The Psychology of the Trade: How FOMO and Crowd Euphoria Destroy Portfolios
Prediction markets do not punish emotion because emotion is immoral. They punish it because binary pricing makes late, hype driven entries mathematically fragile. The real danger is not excitement itself, but confusing public attention with genuine edge.
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Regulation
17 Mar 2026
The Regulatory Reckoning: Why Polymarket, Kalshi, and the CFTC Are Forcing a New Market Standard
Prediction markets are no longer split between a regulated future and an offshore present. Polymarket, Kalshi, and the CFTC are now forcing the same conclusion: scale requires a real standard for jurisdiction, market design, surveillance, and trader protection.
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